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Alcohol & Alcoholism Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 568-573, 2003
© 2003 Medical Council on Alcohol

AN ALTERNATIVE METHOD FOR PREDICTING ATTRITION FROM AN ALCOHOL TREATMENT PROGRAMME

Susan M. O'Connor1,*, John B. Davies2, Dorothy D. Heffernan4 and Robert van Eijk3

1 Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Glasgow, Gartnavel Royal Hospital, 2 Centre for Applied Social Psychology, Department of Psychology and 3 Department of Psychology, University of Strathclyde and 4 Department of Psychology, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK

(Received 5 September 2002; first review notified 29 October 2002; in revised form 5 June 2003; accepted 30 June 2003)

* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed at present address: Department of Clinical Psychology, Royal Hospital for Sick Children, Yorkhill NHS Trust, Dalnair Street, Glasgow G3 8SJ. Tel: 0141 201 0644; Fax: 0141 201 9246; E-mail: suzyharper{at}hotmail.com

Aims: To test the predictive validity of a vignette methodology based on a Signal Detection model by examining treatment attrition within an alcohol clinic. Methods: Participants were asked to categorize vignettes that described individuals drinking alcohol as problem or nonproblem alcohol use at the beginning of a 4-week intensive course of treatment. These participants were divided retrospectively into two groups: those who completed treatment and those who dropped-out of treatment. A matched post-treatment long-term abstainer group was also tested. Results: Signal Detection analyses demonstrated that response bias scores predicted who would drop out of treatment (P = 0.01). Conclusions: The vignette methodology provided useful levels of prediction in an applied clinical setting. It was argued that verbal reports from problem alcohol users may be more usefully conceptualized in terms of sensitivity and response bias than in terms of memory or ‘truth’.


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