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Alcohol and Alcoholism Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 85-88, 2001
© 2001 Medical Council on Alcoholism

Predictors of alcohol intake and heavy drinking in early adulthood: a 5-year follow-up of 15–19-year-old Finnish adolescents

Kari Poikolainen1,2,*, Annamari Tuulio-Henriksson2, Terhi Aalto-Setälä2, Mauri Marttunen2 and Jouko Lönnqvist2

1 Finnish Foundation for Alcohol Studies, P.O. Box 220, FIN-00531 Helsinki and
2 Department of Mental Health and Alcohol Research, National Public Health Institute, Mannerheimintie 166, FIN-00300 Helsinki, Finland

Received 17 April 2000; first review notified 10 July 2000; accepted 1 August 2000

— Relative contributions of earlier drinking and smoking vs mental health risk factors in predicting alcohol intake and heavy drinking in young adulthood were assessed. Higher average alcohol intake and heavy drinking (13 or more drinks on one occasion) in 1995 were significantly related to male gender and earlier high scores in 1990 of relief smoking, relief drinking, and their interaction. Parental alcohol problems, social group, perceived degree of social support, trait anxiety, number of negative life events, self-esteem, grade-point average, somatic symptoms score, or immature, neurotic, or mature defence style measured in 1990 did not predict alcohol intake or heavy drinking 5 years later. The findings suggest that alcohol intake and heavy drinking in young adulthood can be predicted by earlier self-reports on relief smoking and alcohol intake in adolescence.


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