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© 1998 Medical Council on Alcohol


research-article

META-ANALYSIS OF ALCOHOL INTAKE IN RELATION TO RISK OF LIVER CIRRHOSIS

GIOVANNI CORRAO*, VINCENZO BAGNARDI, ANTONELLA ZAMBON and PIERFEDERICO TORCHIO

Department of Statistics, University of Milan Italy

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed at Dipartimento di Statistica, Università di Milano, Viale Sarca, 202, 20136 Milan, Italy

Received 13 October 1997; first review notified 19 January 1998; accepted 18 February 1998

The heterogeneity in the results of observational studies that investigated the association between alcohol consumption and risk of liver cirrhosis was ana]ysed by means of a meta-analysis that included 15 articles published from 1978 to 1997. Relative risks associated with low levels of alcohol intake (25 g/day) ranged from 1.5 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1 4–1.5] for a linear model fitting the results of the six studies performed in Mediterranean areas, to 3.6 (95% CI 3.1–4.3) for a quadratic model fitting the results of the nine studies performed in other areas. A strong indication of heterogeneity was observed when combining all studies. Quadratic term of alcohol intake, quality of the study and area in which the study was performed explained most of this heterogeneity. Efforts should be made to explain the strong heterogeneity in the trend estimates. Reproducible methods to collect relevant and valid information on alcohol intake should be developed and the role of drinking patterns and viral and nutritional factors in modifying the effect of alcohol on the risk of liver cirrhosis should be investigated.


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